The Crimean Investigation (1770 RP)

After the French press leaked details about relations between the Kingdom of France and the Zaporizhian Sich, the Tsardom of Russia initially sought to liquidate the Sich for its actions but entirely reversed its decision after talks with its hetman. These actions angered the French people dearly, many of whom detested the institution of slavery in the Sich and many more who disgusted at reports of genocide. As conflict and almost war brewed between the two powers, the French and Russian governments accepted a Polish-Ottoman investigation on the matter, as those two powers were neutral.

Background
Over the past few decades, Franco-Russian and Franco-Crimean trade had increased dramatically, with manufactured and processed goods such as sugar and tools arriving in Russia's ports while Russia exported raw animal skins and cereals. However, the Russians invaded Crimea in 1768 and obtained it in 1770 after a treaty with the Ottomans. They handed it off to the Zaporizhian Sich, a unit of cossacks which helped cement Russia's control of the Zaporizhian region to the north, providing a buffer between Russia proper and Crimea. However, unlike the former Khan, a sensible man who sought to improve his country, the Hetman of Zaporizhia sought to entirely wipe out his former enemies and promptly began a campaign of enslavement, murder, and racial discrimination throughout the conquered territories.

With the emergence of Enlightenment thinking, however, the introduction of mass chattel slavery upset many, especially the liberal bureaucrats closest to the king and the press. Therefore, by the latter half of the 1770s this policy received considerable pushback from French citizens, both in the metropole and abroad, and the French king adjusted his foreign policy accordingly. It is not a secret that France depended on chattel slavery in its Caribbean colonies, but repeated incidents transformed the institution from something desirable into a necessary evil to continue financing the French economy.

As tensions increased, so too did retaliation. The Hetmanate executed every single Frenchman in their territory in 1775, and the French crown retaliated by executing every Cossack in France in 1777, thus cutting trade between the two nations considerably. During negotiations, the Hetman also mentioned out of the blue that he wanted "Volga Bulgaria", largely populated by Tatars, who were similar to the residents of Crimea. The king was thus convinced that firstly he needed to remove the hetman from power and secondly the Czarina might remove him due to his egregious actions. The Czarina responded by telling the Sich not to do anything that can affect Russia's external affairs, which France considered fair for the time being. However, there were some embarrassing news items the king preferred to keep secret, such as a public order to genocide the Crimean Tatars for a "heavenly trial", and when that was released he was forced to push harder for the liquidation of the Sich.

Military Posturing
Russia initially accepted the French claims that the Sich had been ruining the country and shipped the Zaporizhian Cossacks to Siberia, but during a meeting in May 1779 with the Hetman they restored their rights. The French king was mortified by the reversal, and pressured Russia to undo it, lest the French do it by force. The Czarina refused, claiming that either the French allegations were forged out of thin air, or that they sent spies and thus they were equally in the wrong. Immediately after this Russia started mobilizing its fleet in the Black Sea.

In response, the French threatened war, moving its fleet into blockade positions off of Denmark and the Ottoman Empire to seal the Kattegat and the Bosporus, respectively. The French and the Ottomans made a secret agreement that allowed the French navy to pass the Turkish Straits and for French troops to enter the Ottoman Empire should war break out between the Ottoman Empire and Russia, which refused the Ottoman re-annexation of Bosnia. The French also sent their fleet in India to raid Russian shipping near China, as they had a colony in Hainan.

Poland-Lithuania, which was officially allied to both France and Russia, responded by declaring armed neutrality, readying their small navy and their army to prevent incursions from the two warring powers. With its neutrality, it placed itself into a good position as arbiter, and when nations started to push for an investigation to resolve the dispute Poland-Lithuania was chosen as its main executor. The Ottomans also sent some investigators, although they formed a small minority. Furthermore, to help the investigation, the Russians promised to provide them relevant legal materials.

The Kingdom of Spain threatened to wage war against France, as they saw the dispute as a disruption to their vital slave trade. France, having greatly expanded its navy and with potential British and Ottoman support, thought it could face both Russia and Spain at the same time. As a result, it keeped the blockade until the end of the crisis.

Course and Results
When the investigators arrived in the Crimean Peninsula in July 1779, the Russians quickly found the genocide order for Crimea and gave them a modified copy. With that count done, the Poles started investigating into the other French accusation related to Crimea, namely the "Heavenly Trial". However, the Poles mistook it for a "Heavenly Trail", something which they presumed would have a low but still aggravating death count.

Digging up previous estimates, the investigators came up with a number of 250,000 Crimean Tatars before the conquest, and given the official Hetman estimate that three-quarters of the Crimean Tatar population was enslaved, they were still short of information. Without any census-measuring tools, they estimated the population of Crimea to be about one-quarter of the Khanate's population. After further investigation, however, the numbers came out to be 6,000, too much to be a "Heavenly Trail". Therefore, the investigators dispelled this count, and ordered France to demilitarize saying that it has no legitimate casus belli. This part caused much controversy by itself, as all sides sought to ask the investigators questions, but Russia eventually told them to let them complete the report first.

After this, the investigation sought to track French spy networks by request of the Russian government. They came to the conclusion that there were likely French spy rings in Russia, but in order to exclude the possibility of private accounts, the investigation sought to track where French traders would most likely go. After they got their response from France, that they were likely to stay near established infrastructure, the investigation found the French explanation plausible.

The news came out as a shock to the French press, as they were accustomed to hearing stories about entire villages being desolated by Cossacks and horsemen entering Crimean cities to savage their populations. The French foreign minister stated that it should not be one-quarter of one-quarter, but rather just one-quarter, as the Cossacks would not conceivably let some Crimean Tatars free.